Since 2012 I have participated in the annual Court Futures survey which lists the top 10 trends identified each year by comparison with past years’ surveys. This year was the eleventh survey since 2012. The last two years have been challenging as events unfolded at such a rapid pace. Despite this challenge the survey captured so many critical but similar challenges that courts from around the world are facing into the next decade.
The surveys
We have summarized the best thinking of over 1,660[1] court professionals, with different subsets having reviewed 229 different possible scenarios of the future. This report highlights recent assessments and compares NACM assessments with those of the overall group. Events of these last few years have challenged all of us and challenged our ability to keep up with the current issues facing our courts. We are encouraged by the survey’s relevance even as changes are continuing to unfold in real time.
Methodology
Eleven surveys conducted over ten years have sought to answer the question: what is the most likely future for courts? By assessing the probability of various scenarios occurring within the next ten years, then averaging those results, we have developed estimates of what the future might hold for courts. The assessments, averaging from 1.0 to 1.9 are labeled Highly Likely; 2.0 to 2.4: Likely; 2.5 to 2.9: Maybe (50-50 Chance); 3.0 to 3.4: Unlikely; 3.5 and higher: Improbable. The trends reported below represent the probability views of the overall group.
The trends
10: Demand for Racial Justice Increases Highly Likely
In 2020, protests demanding an end to systemic racism in the criminal justice system focused on law enforcement. Will this demand increase, and will it shift focus to the court system?
The overall group and NACM members both assessed this scenario as having a 2.0 probability; non-NACM respondents assessed it as with a 1.9 probability.
9: Courts Make a Major Commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Highly Likely
In 2021 the survey asked if courts will step up their pledge and broaden their workforce to include a more diverse workforce in terms of gender, race, age, sexual orientation, and personal identification.
The overall group assessed this scenario as having a 1.7 probability; NACM members assessed it as having a 1.6 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as with a 1.7 probability.
8: Court Hearings Will Be Held Remotely Highly Likely
Virtual court hearings became popular during the COVID crisis. Will this trend last in the coming years or will courts revert to in-person hearings? The scenario “Most Court Hearings Will Be Held Remotely” has been run several times over the years, and each time respondents assessed it as having an even chance- 50/50 (2013 assessment 2.7, 2014 assessment 2.7, January 2020 assessment 2.6). In 2021 the survey ran a proxy scenario “Videoconferencing Meetings Continue Post Pandemic,” and the assessed probability significantly increased.
The overall group assessed this scenario as having a 1.5 probability; NACM members assessed it as having a 1.4 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as with a 1.5 probability.
7: Courts Offer Their Training Through Distance Learning Highly Likely
Will courts offer most staff training through webinars, videos, and downloadable PowerPoints? The survey first included this distance learning scenario in the Summer of 2013 and again in 2020. Both times it was assessed as with a 1.6 average probability. In 2022 the survey asked if the court will train employees about fundamental concepts through prerecorded self-guided sessions.
The overall group assessed this scenario as having a 1.9 probability; NACM members assessed the scenario as having a 1.8 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having a 1.9 probability.
6: Continuity of Operations Plans are Revised. Highly Likely
The year 2020 has given courts much to think about regarding their Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP). A public health crisis lasting for months if not years (COVID), multiple simultaneous crises (COVID, protests, and wildfires), and the specter of cyberthreats. Will courts to take advantage of the experiences they have endured, review their COOPs, and revise their plans based on what they have learned?
The overall group assessed this scenario as having a 1.4 probability; NACM members assessed it as having a 1.3 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having a 1.5 probability.
5: The “Problem-Solving” Court Model Expands to the Rest of the Court. Maybe
Treatment and Problem-Solving Courts are noted for their staffing’s, extensive judicial involvement, rewards and sanctions, enhanced social support, regular drug testing, intense supervision, and celebratory court sessions. Will this model extend to other case types including family, landlord-tenant, civil defaults, juvenile, and even conservatorships and guardianships? This scenario was first surveyed in the Winter of 2015 and then again in 2018. Both times the group assessed it has having an even chance 50/50.
In 2018 the overall group assessed the scenario as having a 2.9 probability; NACM members assessed the scenario as unlikely with a 3.0 probability; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having an even chance 50/50 2.8 probability.
4: The Environment of New Courthouses Improves Highly Likely
Will new courthouses become more environmentally friendly, more energy efficient and more healthy? Will the buildings combat potential new virus strains and have vastly improved ventilation systems which include better air filtration? Will we see Plexiglas barriers throughout buildings?
The overall group, NACM members, and non-NACM respondents assessed this scenario as having a 1.9 probability.
3: The Gap Between Rich and Poor Becomes the Overriding Societal Challenge Likely
Will the widening gulf between the rich and the poor overshadows other issues facing society? Will courts be challenged to cope with the growing crisis of the poor. This scenario was first surveyed in the Winter of 2015 and assessed as likely with a 2.2 average probability. When the scenario was surveyed again in 2022, the probability increased somewhat.
The overall group assessed the scenario as having a 2.0 probability; NACM members assessed the scenario as likely with a 2.1 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having a 2.0 probability.
2: Legal Fights Over Voting Access Find Their Way to the Courts Highly Likely
Will lawsuits over voting access and voter fraud flood the courts in the future? These cases demand priority calendaring and emergency rulings. Courts might have to establish special protocols for dealing with these cases on an expedited basis.
The overall group assessed this scenario as highly likely having a 1.9 probability; NACM members assessed the scenario as having a 1.7 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as likely having a 2.0 probability.
1: Courts Statistically Track Bail Decisions and Sentencings Highly Likely
Will courts start to track and systematically report bail and sentencing decisions by defendants’ race, gender, age, and socio-economic status as a way to address accusations of potential systemic bias in the court system?
The overall group, NACM members, and non-NACM respondents all assessed this scenario as having a 1.9 probability.
For an in-depth look at many scenarios, we invite you to go to the https://www.Courtleader.net website. Janet Cornell hosts the site where we have posted several “thought pieces” on the CourtFutures webpage. You can request a full set of survey results by emailing us at CourtFutures@gmail.com.
[1]The Spring 2013 survey received 232 responses, 70 were from NACM members; the Summer 2013 survey received 212 responses, 67 were NACM members; the 2014 survey received 510 responses, 120 were NACM members; the 2015 survey received 493 responses, 137 were NACM members; the 2016 survey received 369 responses, 119 were NACM members; the 2017 survey received 391 responses, 132 were NACM members; the 2018 survey received 352 responses, 155 were NACM members; the 2019 survey received 398 responses, 216 were NACM members; the 2020 survey received 412 responses, 238 were NACM members; the 2021 received survey 358 responses, 170 were NACM members; this latest 2022 survey received 321 responses; 156 were NACM members.